Bitcoin volatility has been low once more, leading many to speculate that a big breakout might be brewing. Price is still keeping its head above a rising channel seen on the 4-hour time frame but has also formed lower highs and is below a shorter-term trend line.
Price would need to close above this short-term trend line or top of a symmetrical triangle to confirm that the uptrend could resume. In that case, bitcoin could still climb to the top of the rising channel around $7,600 or at least until the halfway point around $7,000.
However, the 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, support is more likely to break than to hold. If that happens, bitcoin could be in for a longer-term slide, possibly lasting by the same height as the symmetrical triangle.
Stochastic is still heading north so price might follow suit while buyers have some energy left. The oscillator is already closing in on overbought territory, though, so a return in selling pressure may be seen soon. RSI appears to be resuming its move south, so sellers might return from here.
Thin liquidity during the banking holidays in the US and Canada may be to blame for the lack of big moves, but it could also be due to traders’ jitters while regulatory action is ongoing. The SEC has recently charged EtherDelta’s founder for operating an unlicensed decentralized exchange, so investors have been moving most of their funds out of exchanges into wallets as precautionary measures.
Apart from that, the SEC also announced that it closed the public comment period on bitcoin ETF applications, which could only mean that they’re ready to make their decision soon. Rejection could mean another set of losses for bitcoin, so traders might also be easing up on their exposure.